Carolina Forest, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS62 KILM 160109
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
909 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The only Coastal Flood Advisory segment that remains in effect
is for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown ILM,
effective until midnight. No other major changes needed with the
current forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during evening high
tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to
the new moon on Saturday.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during
evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the
beaches due to the new moon on Saturday.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown
Wilmington and at the beaches should reach just above minor
coastal flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of
the time of the evening high tides over the next few days. At
the beaches, high tide occurs around 7 pm this evening and 8 pm
Saturday evening. Along the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide
takes place around 9 pm this evening and 10 pm Saturday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very
low through the middle of next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through mid next week which
isn`t good news as far as the drought is concerned. Following
the dry W/NW flow in place Friday with temps slightly below
normal, warmer temps are expected thereafter with highs in the
80s to even low 90s at times inland. Fortunately, moisture
levels shouldn`t be high enough to support heat indices much
higher than air temps so no concern for reaching Heat Advisory
criteria (105 degrees). More troughing/moisture on Thu and Fri
will bring by far the best rain chances of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through the period as
the column remains dry other than some passing patches of cirrus
from time to time. The sea breeze circulation did not make much
inland progress today. Light and variable winds are expected for
much of tonight, then the sea breeze will allow for more onshore
flow tomorrow late morning into the early evening. Fog chances
remain low tonight due to mostly dry air.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Tuesday. Early-
morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low-
level moisture increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... High pressure will shift offshore this
afternoon, causing winds to swing around to between south and
southeasterly by sunset with speeds mainly between 5-10 kts.
Expect similar winds through Saturday, with some nearshore
enhancement to southeasterly wind speeds due to the sea breeze.
Southeasterly 7-8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat
through Saturday to 2-3 ft while mainly 1 ft wind waves develop
out of the south to southeast.

Saturday night through Wednesday... High confidence in
conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as
high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure
gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay only 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SRP
KEY MESSAGES...ILM
DISCUSSION...ILM
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MAS/ABW