Carolina Forest, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXUS62 KILM 150012
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
712 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move through the first part of tonight
before improving weather begins later tonight. The low will
strengthen east of Cape Hatteras Friday then move farther
offshore Friday night into Saturday. Dry weather returns Friday
and lingers into next week. Temperatures drop to near or below
normal Friday and Saturday before climbing back above normal
next week. Another cold front may bring additional rainfall
chances to the area by Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the previous forecast but did add a slight
chance of thunder near the coast as there may be just enough low
to mid-level instability for a few rumbles of thunder as a warm
front near Georgetown lifts north ahead of an area of low
pressure. Still thinking any risk for damaging winds or
tornadoes is very small but can`t completely be ruled out given
plenty of deep layer shear in place, mainly around the Cape
Fear region where the greatest instability should occur. The
rain will end overnight as the low pressure system moves away
but low clouds and possibly some sprinkles will linger into at
least the first part of Friday given the mid-level energy moving
through, especially in NC.

Otherwise, the Gale Warning for north of Cape Fear to Surf City
on Friday still appears to be marginal but will let later shifts
re-examine the need to continue it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Warm front/coastal trough has stalled just inland of Cape Fear
and will struggle to move much farther inland. The wedge will
keep the front close to the coast, setting up a large
temperature gradient this afternoon as the warm air moves over
the coastal counties. Increasing moisture, especially in the low
levels this afternoon coupled with isentropic lift will lead to
expanding showers/rain across the region. Some elevated
convection is also possible as the low at the triple point moves
toward the area. The dynamics associated with the low and its
mid-level trough, isentropic lift and divergence aloft all
suggest a period of 6 hours or so where brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Total rainfall from
this afternoon through late evening will be on the order of
0.50" with some locally higher amounts. Much of that rain will
fall between now and mid-evening at which point the low will
move off the coast and deep dry air spreads in from the west.

Surface low and deep moisture that lead to rain Thu/Thu night
will be offshore Fri morning with deep, dry air spreading over
the region. The low will strengthen east of Cape Hatteras Fri,
tightening the gradient which will crank up wind speeds. Some of
the forecast soundings are showing 30-40kt at the top of the
mixed layer, which would imply potential for gusts around 40
mph. Not ready to go quite that high on gusts as the strength
and position of the low as well as how quickly skies clear will
all have an impact on wind speeds and the depth of the mixed
layer. Although deep dry air moves in lingering low level
moisture will keep afternoon humidity above 35%. Temperatures
will end up near climo Fri afternoon, despite the strong
northerly flow. There is not a lot of cold air with the system
and there is no connection to any Canadian airmass

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The potent mid/upper low will be far off the NC coast Friday
night with height rises expected Saturday as ridging aloft
becomes established from the Great Lakes Region into the Gulf
coast. The deepening NWly flow will allow for a very dry column
through the short term period. Meanwhile at the surface - the
intense oceanic low will move eastward and farther away from the
NC coast as cool surface high settles across the Eastern United
States. Overall, expect clear skies with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather will carry into the first part of the extended as
surface high pressure becomes aligned from the Great Lakes
region into the Carolinas and with ridging aloft. Temperatures
will gradually warm into the first part of the upcoming week as
high pressure modifies and shifts away. Better return flow
becomes established by mid-week ahead of the next front. Will
maintain PoPs Wed into Thu, and a lot hinges on the amount of
any tropical-ish air advecting far enough north from the
northeast Gulf of Mexico. GEFS QPF is limited at this time with
the likely higher amounts crossing Florida and remaining farther
off the Southeast United Stated.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in restrictions across SE NC and NE SC into
Friday, but low to moderate confidence regarding
timing/severity. Low pressure will move through the area the
first part of tonight bringing high rain chances and low clouds.
Some of the rain will be heavy at times with vsbys possibly
dropping below 1 NM. Some thunder could even occur near the
coast, especially at KILM. Expect mainly MVFR/IFR conditions at
worse but LIFR cannot be ruled out, especially through about
06Z. VFR should return for all terminals by 18Z Fri but could
linger a bit longer in NC. Winds will increase later tonight
and Friday as the low moves offshore and strengthens with gusts
near 20-25 kt expected at times, especially near the coast and
in NC.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR through at least Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Treacherous marine conditions currently
developing with Small Craft thresholds likely to be exceeded in
the next few hours. Low pressure will drag a cold front across
the waters later this evening with the low deepening east of the
Outer Banks. The strength of the low still warrants a Gale
Warning north of Cape Fear for Friday. It is possible the east
end of AMZ252 experiences an hour or 2 of Gale Warning winds,
but with the limited coverage and duration think the SCA will
suffice. The strong north-northwest winds will have a somewhat
limited fetch for much of the waters, but still with prolonged
20-30kt winds and gusts 30-40kt seas will exceed 6 ft away from
shore with potential for 7 ft seas north and east of Frying Pan
Shoals. Seas will be very chaotic with a mix of wind wave
ranging from east to northwest and a longer period swell from
the east- southeast gradually becoming east-northeast.

Friday night through Tuesday...Offshore flow will weaken
during Friday night as the intense area of low pressure moves
farther offshore. Winds will decrease further during Saturday as
high pressure settles across the Eastern United States and
adjacent coastal waters. Excellent boating conditions are
expected Sunday with high pressure overhead, and somewhat Monday
into Tuesday as the high pushes south of the waters resulting
in generally light offshore flow. Seas will be greatest Friday
night into early Saturday with a higher range of seas given
offshore flow and some backswell expected. Seas will improve
further improve during the remainder of the period given the
aforementioned light winds/weak pressure gradient with high
pressure overhead and just south of the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon accompanied with high astronomical tides will
help support minor coastal flooding through the next few days.
The morning high tide will be the main coastal flood time. In
addition, the lower Cape Fear River, from Wilmington south, will
also observe a threat for minor coastal flooding during both
high tide cycles of each day through Saturday. The highest water
levels (close to moderate) are expected with high tide late
Saturday morning.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ250.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Friday for AMZ252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...III/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...